FEX Exchange on May 8 and operation of the proposed exchange market

Wednesday the foreign exchange market in a very strong performance, mainly by the U.S. Federal Reserve official hard-line speech on the U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut cycle may be nearing the point of view at night and Europe announced in March retail sales data fell sharply in March and the German manufacturing orders continued to decline, as well as weakness in the United Kingdom The industrial output data increased the Bank of England to cut interest rates Thursday the possibility of the next boost. U.S. dollar strength. In the last two months to reach the highest high of 73.88, while the pound against the U.S. dollar dropped to two-month low of 1.9550 to continue downward. 1.9500 hit the lowest mark in the vicinity of an integer, and also to speed up the euro against the dollar and fell below the 1.5400 mark integer. To explore the minimum 1.5366, while the dollar hit 1.0600 Swiss francs once again integral points. Judging from the current situation as a whole, there are a lot of rumors that are reported, Europe and the United States do not want to see the depreciation of the dollar, at the same time, many policy factors are also happy to see the views of U.S. dollars, but in the near future European economic data showing weak Coupled with the announcement last Friday's non-farm accident data up under various factors. To alleviate the market for the U.S. economy into a deep recession fears sentiment. In order to continue to boost the strength of the U.S. dollar trend.

Africa and the United States currency:
The euro: the scope of today's volatility :1.5400-1.5150
Operational recommendations to short-selling of the euro continued to rebound. 1.5450 break strict stop-loss. Goals 1.5150

Yen: Today, the scope of :103.5-band 105.00
Operation: maintaining a high level of short-term bargain-hunting left. Risk control within 50 points.

Sterling: the scope of today's volatility :1.9400-1.9580
The proposed operation. Continue to bounce to short sell the pound. 1.9650 break strict stop-loss. Goals 1.9400

Swiss franc: volatility today :1.0530-range 1.0730
Operation, continue to buy back proposal. Risk Control 1.0480. Target 1.0730

Australian dollar: the scope of today's volatility :0.9280-0.9450
The proposed operation: bargain buy Australian dollars. . Strict stop-loss below 0.9230, 0.9450 short-term goals

Canadian dollars: the scope of today's volatility 1.000-1.0150
The proposed operation. Continue to maintain the highest bargain-hunting high throw. Risk control within 50 points.

Gold: Today, the scope of :871.30-band 855.30
Recommendation to short-selling of gold rebounded. 876 break strict stop-loss. 855 in the vicinity of the target point.

Foreign exchange risk. Operation to be cautious. Risk
FEX Exchange

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U.S. economic crisis facing the triple Bernanke publicly admitted for the first time a recession may be

According to Agence France-Presse reported April 2 that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Washington time Wednesday to members of Congress warned that the U.S. economy in the first half of 2008 may not increase substantially, "may even be a slight tightening." Bernanke as suggesting the U.S. economy may already be in recession in the process, which is also the first time he publicly acknowledged the U.S. economy may decline.


In view of the U.S. economy is currently facing the housing crisis, credit crisis and financial crisis, such as "triple crisis," Bernanke to the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (Joint Economic Committee of Congress) to provide testimony, the state has made short-term outlook for the economy than previously A more pessimistic assessment. But he was not clear on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next position.


Bernanke in testimony before Congress in prepared remarks for the first time publicly admitted the possibility of a recession in the U.S. economy. Economists regard to the general economic recession is defined as: two consecutive quarters of economic activity continued to contract, shall be deemed to have deterioration of the recession. Bernanke in testimony to the congressional joint economic committee, said: "The present situation shows that in the first half of 2008, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even if the growth rate will not be great, or even a slight contraction."


At the same time, however, Bernanke hinted that any recession will be mild. In his testimony, said: "We expect that economic activity in the second half of this year will be strengthened, the incentive of monetary and fiscal policy will play some role."


The latest official statistics show that in the fourth quarter of 2007, a year ago with the U.S. economy grew 0.6 percent, almost at a standstill. A large number of analysts said that the United States in 2008 and even further weakening of economic activity, Bernanke said that while the share that view. He said: "Compared to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released by the end of January outlook, the recent economic outlook has weakened."


Bernanke also stressed that the central bank has taken a lot of action, including a significant reduction in key interest rates, relaxation of direct loans to banks, as well as opening up the Fed's control of the Corporation's credit, and so on in order to ease the housing market to collapse of the credit market caused by pressure .


Bernanke said: "Despite the recent action seems to have helped to stabilize the situation in the market, but financial markets are still a lot of stress are. Since the beginning of the end of last year, short-term capital market once the pressure eased, but now Have once again enhanced. "


At the same time, Bernanke in testimony to the Federal Reserve rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns defended the action, the Fed said it intended to market to avoid "chaos" volatile situation, it could trigger a wider economic Impact. He also said that the U.S. Federal Reserve rescue Bear Stearns in the case facing the "public policy challenges."


Bernanke also disclosed for the first time, Bear Stearns in March 13 to inform the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve of its serious liquidity problem, if there is no special financing, the company will apply for the second day of Chapter XI bankruptcy protection. He said that Bear Stearns bankruptcy would be very serious consequences. He said: "As the financial environment is very fragile, and once all of a sudden collapse of Bear Stearns, may lead to a series of problems in the market disorderly carried out on the floor, which would seriously shake the confidence of the market."


Bernanke stressed that: "Based on the global economy and financial system is currently facing unusual pressure, the collapse of Bear Stearns losses may be very serious and extremely difficult to control. Not only that, or even adverse effects will not be able to limit the financial system But may, through its credit and the value of the assets, the impact of a wide range of economic entities. "


Finally, Bernanke said that the supervision of the Ministry of Finance reform plan was "useful and effective," the first step, the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the market to ensure financial stability. However, he pointed out that most of the necessary economic and financial market adjustment has been completed, monetary and fiscal policies should be able to support the U.S. economy in the second half of this year, as well as the resumption of growth next year. He thus implied that the future may no longer need to take additional monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
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Britain prospects dollar index concussion

The United States is about to become the director of the National Economic Council, Summers said that the government will only spend money to stimulate consumer spending will be on a short-sighted mistake. Has served as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said that the policy of taking into account the need to create jobs in the short term and long-term investment needs of both.


Japan's three major insurance companies - Mitsui Sumitomo Group Holdings, Aioi Insurance, as well as damage with Nissay and damage insurance plan merger to create Japan's largest non-life insurance companies. The main purpose of the merger tide over the difficult period of economic downturn because of the financial crisis has led to the Japanese auto insurance and fire insurance market demand.


Data, the French gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of the value of the end for the growth of 0.1 percent, to confirm the euro zone's second-largest economies - France in 2008, not just slipping into a recession. Statistics released by the end of November with the value in the early hours of the same value. France in 2008 in the second quarter GDP shrinking 0.3 percent. The data show that France has not enough to plunge into recession.


Human Experts predict that next year there may be up to the United Kingdom 600,000 people are unemployed, will be set in 1991 for the worst performance. Believes that a wide range of expected economic downturn next year will be a serious blow to Britain, the economic recovery will be postponed or unemployed before the nearly 300 million mark. Britain's bleak economic outlook fell to promote pounds.


Corporate news, Dow Chemical and Kuwait decided to scale up from 17,400,000,000 U.S. dollars joint venture, the news made investors worry that Dow Chemical may not be able to complete the acquisition of Rohm & Haas, led the U.S. stock market fell. The billionaire investor's investment company Tracinda Kekeruian the spokesman said Kekeruian has sold its holdings of Ford Motor all remaining shares.


The stock market, U.S. stocks fell Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 31.62 points, or 0.37 percent to 8483.93 points.


The bond market, U.S. bond prices rose most, as a result of the outbreak of violence in the Middle East conflict to hedge buying of new support. The impact of hedge buying has been going on for more than a year. For the biennium public bond yields fell to 0.79 percent; 10-year yields fell to 2.11 percent; 30-year yields 2.64 percent was reported.


Commodity market, U.S. crude oil futures rose in trading in shock, mainly due to the tense political situation in the Middle East, a weak dollar, China intends to expand the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as well as bargain hunting set, and so on. NYMEX-2-dated crude oil futures up 2.31 U.S. dollars or 6.13 percent, reported 40.02 U.S. dollars a barrel. New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) -2, gold closed at 875.30 U.S. dollars an ounce on the increase of 4.10 U.S. dollars or 0.47 percent.


In the foreign exchange market, the dollar index yesterday's sharp oscillation and eventually closed below 80.685.


The euro against the U.S. dollar: as a result of investors in quiet trading in again to absorb dollars, while the euro was unable to hold as a result of war in the Middle East again and recorded a rise. New York trading, the euro against the U.S. dollar fell 0.6 percent to 1.3977 U.S. dollars, 1.4361 earlier opinions. The current trend, the current top of the pressure, the euro has a tendency to make the top. Concerned about the range of 1.39-1.42.


Sterling against the dollar: in 2009 there were reports of British house prices will fall further, sterling trade-weighted index earlier fell to a record low of 73.7. Sterling against the dollar also see a low 1.4456 U.S. dollars, in May 2002 to the worst level. As the British economy in the doldrums, the pressure on the British role is quite obvious. Has been below the key 1.46 support, market outlook will remain weak pound.

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S & P 500 S & P 500 INDEX, RTH (^ GSPC)

Time-sharing plans

Japanese K Line

Zhou K Line

On K Line

The Nasdaq Composite Index (^ IXIC) - time-sharing plans

Time-sharing plans

Japanese K Line

Zhou K Line

On K Line

The Dow Jones industrial average (^ DJI) - time-sharing plans

Time-sharing plans

Japanese K Line

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On K Line

U.S. stocks higher; the overall European stock markets lower

U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, the market due to holiday falls on light trading. GM (General Motors) and Citigroup (Citigroup), and other companies have recently suffered the setback rebound, the stock market to close higher. However, the type of material, and other economically sensitive companies have been weak consumer spending and drag the poor unemployment data.

The stock market ahead of Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed up 48.99 points to 8468.48 points, or 0.58 percent, but down 36 percent this year, cumulative, in December fell a total of 4.1 percent. Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.99 points to 868.15 points, or 0.58 percent. The Nasdaq composite index rose 3.36 points to 1524.90 points, or 0.22 percent.

Data:

U.S. MBA Market Index rose 48.0 percent to 1245.4; last week to 841.4; MBA purchasing index rose 10.6 percent to 316.5; last week to 286.1; MBA refinancing index rose 62.6 percent to 6758.6; for 4156 last week.

United States Department of Labor (Labor Department) Wednesday announced a seasonally adjusted basis, as of December 20 the week for the first time the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased 30,000, to 586,000, a record high of 26 years. Every Thursday due to the Christmas holidays, the data released a day ahead of schedule. Prior to Dow Jones Newswires (Dow Jones Newswires) survey of economists expected, on December 20 weeks when the United States for the first time the number of applications for unemployment benefits will increase by 6,000 people.

U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce Department) published Wednesday, seasonally adjusted, the United States in November durable goods orders dropped 1.0 percent, to 186,880,000,000 U.S. dollars. Above the 1.0 percent drop lower than market expectations. Wall Street analysts had expected durable goods orders in November fell 3.0 percent of the total.

U.S. personal spending in November for the fifth consecutive month decline, while the previous one of the key indicators to measure inflation low, but consumers want to reduce the economic recession of their own lives, the U.S. personal savings in November also increased again. Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported a seasonally adjusted basis, November personal spending fell 0.6 percent from the previous month; October personal spending fell 1.0 percent for the initial value.

Data released Wednesday showed that on December 13 the week the Dow Jones - Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ Bank (Dow Jones-Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ) business climate index fell 0.5 percent after declining 0.7 percent for the week.

U.S. Department of Energy: U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week, 3,101,000 barrels, to 3.18188 billion barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 3,336,000 barrels per day, to 2.07295 billion barrels; distillate inventories increased by 1,814,000 barrels per day, to 1.35337 billion barrels.

Stock:

Stocks higher in large part by the impact of General Motors, which rose 25 cents to 3.25 U.S. dollars, an increase of 8.3 percent.

Bank of America (Bank of America) and Citigroup led a large banking stocks, Bank of America rose 78 cents to 13.53 U.S. dollars, up 6.1 percent; Citigroup rose 26 cents to 6.78 U.S. dollars, or 4%.

Home builder stocks fell across the board again Wednesday, Pulte Homes fell 23 cents to 10.31 U.S. dollars, or 2.2 percent.

Although the number of non-essential consumer stocks rose slightly on Wednesday, but this year's holiday shopping season, business performance for the past several decades may be the worst fears mood level is still lingering. Macy's rose 11 cents to 8.82 U.S. dollars, or 1.3 percent, but the unit still has this week dropped a total of 17%.

Bulk commodity prices and the trend of the stock market's further evidence of the slowdown in global economic growth expectations. Alcoa (Alcoa) fell 18 cents to 9.39 U.S. dollars, or 1.9 percent, since the unit earlier this year hit a peak level has since dropped 79%.

European stock markets Wednesday Review:

European stock markets closed Wednesday down overall. This is the week's last trading day.

UK FTSE 100 index closed down 0.9 percent, to 4216.6 points, the French CAC-40 index fell 0.4 percent, to 3116.2 points. Frankfurt market closed Wednesday. Trading was quiet in the market, the market can guide the company more than news.

British stock market crash for a few days of tension panic

In the United States by the time the crisis caused by global financial turmoil, the British stock market over the past few days, the market panic tension. At the same time, the United Kingdom increased inflation, consumer prices, the parties predict Britain will speed up the economic recession, a negative atmosphere.

According to the Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao reported that the Bank of England Monday to 5,000,000,000 pounds into the market after the payment of 20,000,000,000 again Tuesday to rescue the market. However, the British Financial Times index is still down 178 points Tuesday, fell to the lowest level in three years. Today, the U.S. insurance group AIG in an emergency, even though the U.S. government to take action to rescue the market, the British were still falling stock market opened.

Tuesday all the major British banking stocks were down in an emergency, in which Britain's biggest mortgage bank HBOS's share price had once dropped by 34% and 22% to close down. Britain's largest real estate bank loans Xiali Fass Jie Housing Agency is under the bank HBOS, Britain has a 20% open Housing loans, borrowing more than 2000 million customers. 17, when the market opened, while other British bank shares rebounded somewhat, but HBOS shares rose before 8:00 back again.

Royal Bank of Scotland and the British National Westminster Bank also belong to the same group HBOS, the Tuesday following the stock market fell 10 percent after the market opened on the 17th also see the end of the pick-up.

U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in the City of London has over 5,000 employees, most of these people suddenly find themselves unemployed Tuesday. Market analysts pointed out that the United States by storm is not the end of the meeting, the City estimated the number of unemployed in the near future will be close to 8-1000, their average annual salary of about 60,000 pounds, down significantly to the recent economic recession caused by a direct attack on the British market Worse still, the confidence.

Britain 17 forecast China Federation of Trade Unions, a year after Britain's long-term unemployment rate will be doubled. British unemployment rate is currently at a level of 5.4 percent, to the end of next year, is expected to exceed more than one year of the unemployed will reach 700,000, the national unemployment rate to rise to 2,000,000.

Britain announced Tuesday the inflation rate reached 4.7 percent, with the official set by the 2% annual inflation rate amounted to vary considerably, at the highest level in 16 years. Britain Governor of the Bank of England this week sent a letter to the finance minister, warned that the British consumer prices rose due to the inflation rate may rise to 5%.

British food-to-date inflation up to 14.5 percent, since the fuel price increases this year, nearly 28% of the electricity user fee increase of 18%. Economic experts here said that Britain is facing a 16-year life of the fastest-growing consumer price index and the economic recession is a significant performance.

The real estate figures released this week also showed that in the past in the first quarter of the country's housing sale at a rate of 30-year low. Meeting in the United States affected by the crisis, the United Kingdom over the past six months building a considerable tightening credit, the British property prices over the past four months in a row down.

In Britain 350 large enterprises in the survey, 2 / 3 of people believe that the credit crisis and yet to come, and be prepared to face the worse the prospect of even worse. A few days ago, the British entrepreneurs also warned that Britain is entering a more severe than expected downturn in the economy is more severe credit crunch and financial crisis yet to come.

Germany this year and next year is expected to grow by 1.5% and 1%

Deutsche Bundesbank president and European Central Bank (ECB) member Weber said on May 5, the central bank is still expected to Germany in 2006 Germany's economy will grow by about 1.5 percent during the year the growth rate may accelerate to 2%, but lower annual average number.

He also said: "The German central bank is still expected 2007 economic growth rate of about 1%, may be higher.

Short-term economic risks and in the past, is the basic balance. Medium and long term there may be a slight downward risk because of global economic imbalances caused. But basically, I think the outlook for 2012 remains unchanged. "
German Ministry of Economic Affairs said that the recent rise of the euro against the dollar if it continues, it may end up on Germany's export industry will be affected.

German Ministry of Economic Affairs, in its monthly report that since February the euro against the U.S. dollar exchange rate increased significantly. If prices continue to rise into the final, will be getting more and more negative impact on export activities

A large number of new funds flowing into China, Switzerland, Germany equity funds so popular these days

In the United States on the brink of bankruptcy three major auto plants, the Government continued to shout "help", Germany's Porsche (Porsche) has earned Fan Tian, a year profit more than 10,000,000,000 U.S. dollars.

Porsche Motor Company announced on the 7th, by the end of July deadline for the fiscal year, pretax profit rose 46 percent to 8,570,000,000 euros, the equivalent of 10,900,000,000 U.S. dollars. However, 80 per cent of the profits from the production car is not, but skillfully operating profits of financial instruments, which operate for a long time to Porsche and Volkswagen would like to buy (VW) the intention of the relationship go a long way.

Porsche in the operational profit, the actual depot for more than two General of the United States and the Ford Motor Company of the total market value. The share price slide all the way General Motors, has only a few of the current market value of 2,470,000,000 U.S. dollars, Ford only 4,570,000,000 U.S. dollars.

Led the "sea fishing" is the long-running Porsche Wade King and Chief Financial Officer and special, but more importantly, their collaboration and the Volkswagen Beetle is the creator of the grandson of the two snow-bo (Wolfgang Porsche) Piech and (Ferdinand Piech), they are the Porsche and Volkswagen's chairman of the board.

Since 2005, Porsche through a selection of the right tools to make large profits, and help them quietly to the creation of Fox's huge holdings, and the market has no information on this. Until the end of last month, Porsche disclosed information shows that they have real control over the market shares of most of the Fox, Volkswagen's share price has been soaring along with it.

As a result, the original stock of Fox's short hedge funds, they rolled into the classic trap air, the Fox share price rocketed even got to allow the global market value of the Volkswagen car company's highest throne. The hedge fund industry desperately in the market chasing a limited stock of the results of their week in just a few hours on the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars.

The Porsche's move shows that the traditional old economy manufacturers have to learn from hedge funds, and have the ability to hedge funds in the main battle field to defeat them.

Porsche relying on the strategy in the global automotive industry Ku Haha, or even struggling for survival, in the last fiscal year's net income surged 51% trend has reached 6,390,000,000 euros. Moreover, the settlement in July only to the financial year, not even reflected in last month's huge profit.

However, it has not yet come to an end, German monetary authorities have to investigate to find out whether there is a Porsche improper operation of the Fox shares suspects. Porsche stressed that they do not have any misconduct, Fox share price boom is the result of short replenishment.

But on the other hand, Porsche Porsche wants to control the revenue is 15 times the output of up to 60 times more of the Volkswagen, it seems that there are many obstacles to be overcome.

U.S. pressure in the coming year the central Tinggang is timely

For the three-week Christmas Eve, the U.S. stock market early in the 13 o'clock closed, trading volume decreased significantly. Rest of the morning before the U.S. government announced a series of positive and negative sides of the mixed economic data, including consumer spending in November fell for the fifth consecutive month, but the margin was better than market expectations, initial applications for unemployment benefits last week, a further increase in the number of high - The market expected, and so on. In these slightly better than market expectations data under the influence of U.S. stock index more positive response. This week for the long Christmas holiday, many fund managers on leave, and that the transaction volume deserted, I believe that many investors this year will no longer sell investment is expected to wait until early next year, will start to deploy, this period will be in the index Hovering within a narrow range. Last week, U.S. mortgage applications increased 48% as a result of home loan interest rates to 5-year low and then increase the number financiers. U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications last week, including the purchase of mortgage loans or refinancing applications have also increased significantly, the highest in 2003. Last week, U.S. 30-year fixed-rate loan, the average interest rate dropped to the second lowest in the history of loans to reduce monthly payments. Although the increase in applications for home purchase, home purchase index or an eight-year low near the home sales showed a sharp recession may last until next year. U.S. consumer spending in November after adjustment for inflation, the increase in the last two years, the biggest hit, showing a decline in oil prices to the American people more cash to spend during the Christmas holiday. The United States in November After adjustment for inflation, personal spending growth of 0.6 percent for the six months increased for the first time. Gasoline prices plummeted, and many discount retailers such as department store sales, though the American people to face the second year of economic recession, but also to maintain spending. However, more than 1,900,000 people out of work, also a record decline in housing prices, consumer confidence has been shaken in the next few months will not be any major improvement in sales. In the coming year is estimated that U.S. pressure. Although the People's Bank of China on Monday abruptly cut interest rates, but the rate is far lower than the market expected, the performance of Hong Kong stocks affected the opportunity to short before the long holidays to reduce the hands of the shareholders, and look forward to the earlier interest rate cuts through improper means and within the Housing Unit also Has obviously been taking. China Eastern Airlines shares as a result of the acquisition came on the air and news to stimulate the restructuring of the industry, leading to a whole are subject to the support plate. I believe that next year there is still room for interest rate cuts, the Mainland in the future there will be more of the new monetary policy introduced. Hong Kong stocks in the long Christmas holiday for a few days ago, "Jiaoruan" week or three days a total of nearly 1,300 points, deserted investment climate, further contraction of the transaction to close to 26-month low. Now how to revive and rebuild market confidence in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government must deal with as quickly as possible, key issues, the central government last week introduced 14 measures to support Hong Kong can be described as timely. The combination of boxing is using the policy to buy time to develop in exchange for living space, involving more than 14 measures in the field, I believe Hong Kong can benefit from a wide range of industries. I believe that many of the "Ting Gang" measures, the largest and most far-reaching impact on the permit is eligible to RMB business in Hong Kong, trade payment, which will help strengthen our position as an offshore renminbi trading center, as well as clearing center , To strengthen the economy of Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar to maintain the linked exchange rate system, while Hong Kong's commercial banks have the opportunity to develop new business and reduce redundancy.

U.S. stocks rose slightly as the focus of the retail section (4)

Friday oil prices push gold higher

Friday, New York, gold (186, -0.04, -0.02%, right) futures prices rose nearly 3 percent, to close at more than 870 U.S. dollars an ounce. By crude oil futures prices rose sharply and the decline in retail sales, such as news, investors preferred to raise hedge, gold prices push higher.

Affected by the Christmas holiday, Friday gold futures market volume was light. Trading was most active on the New York Mercantile Exchange, February delivery gold futures contract rose 23.20 U.S. dollars, or 2.7 percent, to close at 871.20 U.S. dollars an ounce.

Friday afternoon, crude oil futures prices rose 5.4 percent, the price break through 37 U.S. dollars a barrel. Before trading day of a 9.3 percent drop in oil prices. Rising oil prices lead to increased inflationary pressures, increased market demand for gold as an investment tool in the fight against inflation interest.

U.S. retailers to take aggressive price promotions on the gold market today, obviously played a role. Friday's SpendingPulse MasterCard International Organization report released by the department showed that, excluding car sales, excluding, in November this year, U.S. retail sales over the same period last year, a decrease of 5.5%; in December before Christmas Eve to Christmas sales year-on-year decrease of 8% .

GoldForecaster.com Web site editor Julian - Phillips (Julian Phillips) said, "As more and more bad news impact of the financial markets, including retail and other industries have felt the impact of the price of gold also showed long-term The rising trend. "

December delivery gold contract will expire on December 29, and Friday the price of futures contracts also rose to close at 870.40 U.S. dollars an ounce. According to information provided by the Comex institutions, as of this week, five in December contracts outstanding amount of (Open interest) - that is, is still to stay in the market, the market price changes affect the amount of the contract - for 212 hands, that is, 21,200 Ounces.

According to the Comex agency published the latest data, as of three this week, the agency's supply of gold futures for 2,832,883 ounces, more than the previous trading day decreased by 100 ounces.

Friday in the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell against the euro exchange rate, exchange rate against the pound sterling and the yen rose. Eastern time Friday 14:13 (Beijing time on December 27 03 points, 13 points), tracking U.S. dollar trade-weighted basket of major currencies, the dollar exchange rate the performance index (DXY) rose 0.1 percent. Generally, the price of gold and the dollar to the contrary.

It was the world's largest gold-stock index fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to the data provided by the agency this week, three positions still held by the 775.33 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day, over the past month, an increase of 20 tons. U.S. stock market Friday afternoon trading, SPDR Gold Trust shares rose 2.5 percent, reported 85.51 U.S. dollars.

Friday afternoon, spot gold trading for large-scale gold spot trading between the base price of London gold price fixing (London gold-fixing price) reported 836.75 U.S. dollars an ounce higher than Tuesday afternoon, down 6.75 U.S. dollars.

Other metals futures, the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery in March silver futures prices rose 1.7 percent to close at 10.53 U.S. dollars an ounce. January delivery platinum futures prices rose 3.6 percent to close at 890.20 U.S. dollars an ounce. March palladium futures delivery rose 0.6 percent to close at 176 U.S. dollars an ounce.

March delivery of copper futures prices rose 2.3 percent to close at 1.3035 U.S. dollars per pound.

U.S. stocks rose slightly as the focus of the retail section (2)

Volume extremely light, the New York Stock Exchange volume of 516 million shares, Nasdaq volume was 218 million shares. New York Stock Exchange outnumbered 3 to 1, the Nasdaq Stock Market breadth was 15 to 11.

Asian stock markets ended mixed Friday, Tokyo stocks closed higher, while China and South Korea had been a drop in the stock market.

As a result of a number of Asian stock markets closed for holiday, the United Kingdom and Europe in the stock market is still closed. The Japanese government report on industrial output record the largest decline, the highest since 1953, the Japanese government to collect data since the beginning of a new high.

Wednesday, in November as a result of consumer spending and durable goods orders figures were better than expected, U.S. stocks rose slightly. Dow up 0.6 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.6 percent, the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent. U.S. stocks closed Thursday.

U.S. Christmas holiday sales this year, down 4% year-on-year

According to MasterCard Advisors (MasterCard Advisors)'s SpendingPulse's retail data released Friday reported that this year's holiday sales season, the U.S. consumer is not only a necessity to reduce spending, but also to reduce the clothing, electronics and jewelry And so on, therefore, the highest retail sales fell 4%.

According to MasterCard's research and analysis, vice president of Maikenaman Michael (Michael McNamara), said this year's holiday season, consumer spending since the beginning of 2002 from the MasterCard SpendingPulse provide services to its lowest level since. According to his forecast, excluding car and gasoline sales, on November 1 to December 24 between the retail sales fell 2% to 4%.

SpendingPulseG reported on November 1 to December 24 between the women's sales fell 23% in the same period last year, men's sales were down 14%; electronics and electrical appliances sales fell 27 percent year-on-year, with more than 1000 U.S. dollars of product sales The worst; luxury goods such as jewelry sales dropped 35% year-on-year.

Maikenaman said: "To put this in perspective, this year's holiday sales season ever has been the most challenging time."

U.S. consumers are currently experiencing an economic downturn and tightening credit standards and the 15-year high unemployment rate and so on the plight and therefore reduce the holiday season gift expenditures. United's second-largest department store chain Mae (Macy's Inc.) And a luxury department store operator Saks Inc.'s The highest price range are up to 70%, hoping to attract consumers, its profit margins would likely suffer.

Earlier this week, according to Chicago-based research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. Published report said on December 19 to 21 U.S. retail sales fell 5.3 percent year-on-year, customer traffic dropped 24% in the same period last year, hitting a new all-time high decline The discount retailer indicated that further measures failed to attract consumers to play a role.

ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) also announcement this week reported that opened at least a year or more retail outlets in November and December sales may fall up to 2% higher than previously expected decline of 1 percent, which would Make this year's Christmas sales season, at least 40 years since the worst performance.

After the Christmas sales season from now on, and the holiday season's retail sales will decline during this period to continue to pressure.

U.S. retailers Union (NRF), a spokesman Scott - Krugman (Scott Krugman) in the Dec. 24 interview, said: "The Friday after Christmas will be another 'Black Friday'. For Retailers, this year the week after Christmas than ever before is all the more important. "

So far this year, S & P 500 retail index has fallen by 34%, of its 27 stocks, only two rose. The world's largest retailer Wal-Mart is not the index constituent stocks of the company on December 24 in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) trading up 15 cents to 55.44 U.S. dollars, has so far this year, up 17%.

U.S. retail sales rose a small plate into focus

Amazon (AMZN) rose 0.7 percent. The company said Friday, despite the general downturn in retail trade, but the 2008 holiday sales situation is "the best ever."

However, a retail report showed that the initial investigation, for retailers this year's Christmas was miserable. According to "The Wall Street Journal" reported Thursday, MasterCard's SpendingPulse data published by the department showed Excluding automobiles, retail sales in November than the same period last year, 5.5 percent, in December (as Christmas Eve) 8% decline in retail sales.

If excluding petrol, Christmas this year, total sales year-on-year drop of 2-4 percent. Investigation revealed that "the adverse economic situation, as well as before the last week of bad weather in 2008 so that the Christmas shopping season in decades into the most challenging year."

Windham Financial Services chief investment strategist Paul - Mendelsohn (Paul mendelsohn) said that the "very poor retail industry data, but bad news for the market reaction is not heated, then this is good news."

He pointed out that "the market has already digested the bad news too many people trying to find the other end of the tunnel of light."

Friday in New York gold futures rose nearly 3 percent, to close at more than 870 U.S. dollars an ounce. By crude oil futures prices rose sharply and the decline in retail sales, such as news, investors preferred to raise hedge, gold prices push higher.

U.S. stocks slightly higher energy and raw materials led plate

Up close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.07 points to close at 8515.55 points, or 0.56 percent, the Dow 30 component stocks in a total of 17 stocks rose. Alcoa rose 4.2 percent, Exxon Mobil rose 1.9 percent, Coca-Cola rose 1.1 percent.

General Motors rose 12.6 percent.

GM's GMAC financial sector need to bond holders in the Friday deadline will be decided 38,000,000,000 U.S. dollars into bonds at a lower value of the bonds, so that GMAC will it be possible to become a bank holding company, is the only way is to say only Eligible for the Ministry of Finance issues 700,000,000,000 U.S. dollars of assets in the financial rescue plan. According to reports, GMAC need access to 75% of the bondholders agreed to the restructuring of the debt can be.

Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 7.38 points to close at 872.80 points, or 0.85 percent; Nasdaq composite index rose 5.34 points to close at 1530.24 points, or 0.35 percent.

Energy Plate rose 2%, crude oil futures fell 33% in the month after today's rebound.

Mendelsohn said, "do fund managers and market value adjustment of trading positions for next year is the impact of the current market a major factor."

He pointed out that "many of the investors in the past two weeks to sell shares for tax considerations, as the end draws near, some stores have to wear the hope that investors may buy back some of the energy sector."

Communications rose 2% of the plate, the plate of raw materials rose 1.8 percent.

So far this year, the Dow fell a total of 32% stake in the financial weight of the larger Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 41 percent, the Nasdaq was down 42%.

People's Daily: Earthquake economic fundamentals do not change

May 26, 2008 07:08:12 Source: People's Daily
Wenchuan strong earthquake struck, causing heavy casualties and property losses. At present, earthquake relief work is being carried out. Expert analysis, Wenchuan earthquake will not affect the economic fundamentals, China's economy will continue to maintain又好fast development momentum.

State Council Development Research Centre Ba Shusong experts recently said that the earthquake will not change the economic growth trend. At present, China is the economic fundamentals continue to maintain fast growth又好, with the macro-control policies related to the implementation of the government work report put the 2008 economic targets can be achieved. However, the economy is the prominent contradictions in the "three-off" Although to some extent eased, but still outstanding; Although the risk of inflation in the effective control of, but from the structural to the overall trend of the spread still exists, still persist Macro-control, to implement the "two defenses" of policies and measures.

Major earthquake disaster to people's lives and property caused heavy losses, hit disaster areas of infrastructure, industrial and commercial enterprises, blocking industrial and agricultural production, which has seriously affected the local economic development. To May 22, the central disaster losses estimated rate of more than 300 billion yuan. According to preliminary statistics, 14,207 industrial enterprises in Sichuan disaster, the direct economic loss of 67 billion yuan, business services direct loss of 20 billion yuan. Chinese People's University School of Public Relations Professor Dr. Liu Xin pointed out that at present, the disaster are serious, but still limited to some areas of the country's limited impact on economic growth.

From the post-disaster reconstruction, the central financial arrangements for this year, 70 billion reconstruction fund and arrange 25 billion yuan for rescue operations, the whole of society contribute to the disaster areas to 16 billion yuan, coupled with the future of local government and community input Experts believe that reconstruction funds will be accumulated over 100 billion yuan. These inputs for earthquake relief, restore production and rebuild homes and economic development to provide strong support. From the policy levers, the People's Bank of China has announced that the disaster area to take a distinction of monetary policy, money supply will mean that the disaster areas due to relax, other relevant supporting policies for the economy will also introduced. Some experts have analyzed the disaster areas reconstruction task will be very heavy, infrastructure, housing, factories and other construction-related products will be expanded on demand, promoting related industries and economic growth.

At present, to the scientific concept of development to the overall situation, adhere to the principle of unabated grasping earthquake relief, firmly grasping the economic development, in order to achieve economic targets is scheduled to further strengthen and improve macro-control, focus on controlling inflation, the next Make great efforts to promote the production and supply security, and maintain steady and rapid economic development. (High-only)

Zhang: China's high growth has not yet entered the era of high inflation

2008年05月28日 07:17:35 　Source: China Securities News
The first four months of this year CPI gain of 8.2 percent, China's economy has entered a "high growth, high inflation" era, and will run in the direction of what «Written Discussion on this recent series of forms to invite some experts talk about their domestic point of view .

The author believes that China's future will not enter the high-growth, high inflation era. Because of China's actual economic growth rate did not exceed the potential rate of economic growth, so there will be no high growth and high inflation both situations. At the same time, China's future cost of the product will not be sustained, rapid increase trend. In the long run, international commodity prices will continue rising. Increase in costs and more intense competition in the market environment, enterprises should carry out more of its own comprehensive development plan, it is precisely China's industrial structure optimization, transformation of the mode of economic development of the tremendous momentum.

First, China's actual economic growth rate below the potential rate of economic growth

From the economic growth theory and practice, high growth and high inflation both phenomena, can only occur in the actual economic growth rate higher than the potential economic growth rate of circumstances, is the level of economic growth to support economic growth over the conditions of performance. In real economic growth below potential economic growth under conditions of high growth is not possible with both the phenomenon of high inflation.

China's current economic growth rate lower than the actual potential rate of economic growth. To this conclusion, we need to do some discussion. China's potential for economic growth, understanding of different, from 8 percent to 9 percent and more than 10 percent. Mainly due to the potential economic growth rate is changing, decided to economic growth potential of the various factors are changing. Is to determine the potential supply of the main elements, including capital, technology, labor, and other. From these elements conditions, I think the potential of China's current economic growth rate should be at least 12 percent. This is because, in 2007 China's economic growth rate reached 11.9 percent, but there are still large amounts of funds remaining (bank deposit a large number of poor, large foreign exchange reserves, etc.), labor surplus (not full employment is still the most prominent one of the social problems), technology Supply potential, if taking into account the foreign technology and the formation of independent innovation of China's major core technology supply conditions, it should be said that great. Taking all these potential supply situation can be considered China's potential economic growth rate of at least 12 percent.

Performance in this potential economic growth rate above the level in accordance with another important is that when economic growth rate reached 11.9 percent of the time, there are still a lot of surplus (2007 trade surplus reached more than 2,600 billion U.S. dollars), from the perspective of national accounts This is total social investment of less than total social savings result, the actual economic growth rate is lower than the potential economic growth rate for another proof.

Of course, the potential of China's current economic growth also requires a detailed and profound analysis of this research are under way, but decided to potential economic growth rate for the level of various factors, it that our country's real economic growth rate is Below the potential rate of economic growth. The reason is mainly a new round of faster economic growth has always been bound by the effective macro-control, not rapid and sustained warming, its deep background, it is bound by the resources and the environment.

The discussion above shows that China's potential economic growth rate higher level, the actual economic growth rate did not exceed the potential rate of economic growth, so there will be no high growth and high inflation both situations.
Second, the cost-push to conduct a comprehensive analysis

Never strict interpretation of high prices or can be called high inflation. In fact discussed in the economics of inflation, currency is increasing demand from expanding further price increases caused the integrity of the process, due to lead to price increases, may also be the supply-side reasons, the price will rise collectively referred to as inflation is not Strict. The price rose from the medium and long-term, major decisions on the cost of the changes. Because of cost if not reasonable compensation, in the medium to long-term course of development, a product of the production will decline, the supply will be reduced, if other products can not be replaced, the demand for this product will be pulling its prices . This is also the value of (socially necessary labor time) decided that the price of one of the specific performance.

The current increase in the cost of promoting indeed many factors, including the increase in wage costs, the increase in raw material costs (including both domestic and international), the increase in cost, resources and environment, and so on. The increased costs will inevitably promote the level of prices. Is to be noted that the cost to conduct a comprehensive analysis must change. To see an increase in the cost factor, it is also necessary to reduce the costs of the factors taken into full consideration. Front analysis showed that, when the actual rate of economic growth below potential economic growth rate, the oversupply the market will show a pattern of widespread and intense competition, it is also practical in recent years the majority of our products in domestic and overseas markets face a basic situation . The competition led to a class of important events that enterprises in the cost of management and technological innovation efforts in two areas. Because in the competition to occupy a favorable position, the first to make products with good price competitive edge, the second to make products with better quality, performance, competitive advantage. To achieve this goal, we must strive to reduce costs, including the strengthening of cost management, efforts to reduce consumption and investment, eliminate Paomaodilou, raising labor productivity, and so on. These efforts will lead to lower cost factors of development, the competition led to lower the cost factors, we absolutely can not be underestimated.

After 1995, with the domestic market supply and demand changes, clothing, textile, home appliances, and other labor-intensive industries continue to lower prices. After 2001, is facing a raw material costs continue to increase the impact, but the trend of lower prices to maintain, an important reason is that competition led to lower the cost of these factors support the sustained development of industry. It should be noted that China's economic development mode or extensive features outstanding, compared with the developed countries, China's investment in lower and lower consumption potential is still very great; On the other hand, cheap labor, China's labor-substitute industries to capital-and technology The phenomenon is still relatively common, the potential for increased labor productivity, capital and technology substitution of the potential labour force is also very large. Through competition, give full play to such potential, it will bring enormous cost reduction effects.

Of course, also noted that the agricultural production, reduce the cost of the potential of a relatively small. However, agricultural production to specialization, industrialization, mechanization, and other aspects of development, but also contains a certain amount of the potential of raising labor productivity, contains a certain amount of cost reduction potential. At the same time, from agriculture and industry, the service sector and other non-agricultural labor productivity compare the differences of view, agriculture is a weak industry, but also very rigid demand, the product can not be replaced. So the costs of agricultural production must be considered sufficient compensation. So from a longer period, the prices of agricultural products will show a moderate increase continued the trend.

Based on the above analysis, in the promotion of increased costs and lead to lower costs of the two types of factors working together, the future cost of our products will not be sustained, rapid and improve the situation, would not push prices to continue to grow.

Third, long-term perspective, international commodity prices will not continue rising

To fully understand the role of prices. On the one hand will stimulate price increases related to the supply increase, and the international supply of primary products increased the potential for enormous, the price adjustment will be released under the other price increases will curb the demand for related products, and promote technological progress and product Alternative. The role of these factors together, the prices can not continue rising.

In addition, China's food supply and demand can be based on domestic balance, the basic livelihood of goods subject to little effect on the international market, which is the basis of price stability.

Comprehensive analysis, I think my future will not enter the high-growth, high inflation era. However, it should be noted that, since many domestic and international factors, the business environment will become more severe, the increased cost and more intense competition in the market environment, enterprises should carry out more of its own comprehensive development plan, invest more Effort. This is precisely the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China, the transformation of the mode of economic development of the tremendous momentum. (Zhang)