1/13/2009

Deutsche Bank 9 years or the first loss of the securities sector deficit is 1.5 billion U.S. dollars

2 According to informed sources, Deutsche Bank in the past quarter because of hedging transactions engaged in bonds and a loss of one billion U.S. dollars. In addition, the bank also suffered a 500 million U.S. dollars of stock. Analysts believe that Deutsche Bank may be a loss in the fourth quarter, which is Deutsche Bank Securities Sector 9 years for the first time showing a loss.

NetEase Financial inquiry: According to the U.S. Bloomberg News reported January 12, the two informed sources, Deutsche Bank in the past quarter because of hedging transactions engaged in bonds and a loss of one billion U.S. dollars. In addition, the bank also suffered a 500 million U.S. dollars of stock. Analysts believe that Deutsche Bank may be a loss in the fourth quarter, which is Deutsche Bank Securities Sector 9 years for the first time showing a loss.

Weak performance of the collective financial giant

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse had a bad day for the same. Since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September since four financial giants have suffered similar losses. In addition to Goldman Sachs, all the banks have declared they are to close a number of proprietary trading business. LBB Invest in Berlin asset manager Lutz - Meyer (Lutz Roehmeyer) said: "At present, the financial crisis has been brought to the Deutsche Bank have to shocks, the bank need to reduce the risk and reduce the size of transactions in order to adapt to the changing market conditions. "

In 2007, in addition to Goldman Sachs, the Deutsche Bank's trading debt than all the other banks higher. It is reported that Deutsche Bank's securities department 9 years may be a loss for the first time, reflecting the bank has not been able to deal with a very good market changes. While in the bank on February 5 before the publication of results, Jain refused to comment on the reports. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, together, are subject to the U.S. sub-loan market, as well as weak investment performance bond of at least 35 years to the worst, as well as the stock market's worst performance of the impact. Deutsche Bank CEO Ackermann (Josef Ackermann) at the end of last year, 12 said that its wrong to estimate the severity of this crisis. Diamond, CEO of JP Morgan Chase (Jamie Dimon) pointed out pointed out that the business of trading, the 11 and in December is very terrible.

Since 2008, Goldman Sachs has become the world's most profitable securities firms, but the fourth quarter still suffered the loss of 2.1 billion U.S. dollars. It is worth mentioning is that this is its listing since 1999 for the first time since the loss. In addition, the company's fixed income, currency and commodity sector a loss of 3.4 billion U.S. dollars, reflecting its is faced with a difficult trading environment.

Difficult difficult environment

Switzerland's second-largest bank Credit Suisse (Credit Suisse) in December 4, 2008 said that the previous two months, about 2.7 billion U.S. dollars to suffer losses, their will be laid off 5,300 people. In addition, the bank in October last year and in November the same suffered not a small pre-tax loss of income. According to Bloomberg News by the aggregate data, the world's largest banks and brokerage firms have suffered more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars of assets as well as the reduction of credit losses. Since the beginning of 2007, such cases are forced to finance its 946 billion U.S. dollars.

Deutsche Bank co-head of global credit trading by the end of 2008 in Boaz Weinstein sector losses will leave. 35-year-old Weinstein plans to take away 15 colleagues, the second quarter of his company will set up a hedge fund. Deutsche Bank global credit trading, another supervisor, also his partner Colin Fan also to join his company. People familiar with the situation on December 12 has pointed out that Lehman Brothers in September after the bankruptcy, Weinstein operation exchange credit default (CDS) contracts for the bond hedge, resulting in loss of one billion U.S. dollars, while the Weinstein has worked in Deutsche Bank for 11 years. Merck Finck & Co. Analyst Konrad Becker said Deutsche Bank intends to reduce the risk of self-Ministry is the main reason, it is reasonable to leave Weinstein.

In addition, Credit Suisse said its investment in complex products and will give up some proprietary trading (proprietary trading). JPMorgan Chase Bank analyst Kian Abouhossein said: "The current environment, everyone is under pressure, almost no one can avoid losses. Deutsche Bank the situation is relatively good, but in response to the current market uncertainty, the Bank financing may also be very large scale. "

By the assets by taking into account the impact of reduced transaction volume in 2008, before the nine months, Jain, Deutsche Bank earned only help all of its revenue 28 percent, while the figure in 2007 was as high as 54%. In 2008 the first three quarters, the consumer banking sector is the line in all sectors of the most profitable sector. In addition, foreign exchange and commodity trading to some extent make up for the Deutsche Bank in structured products revenue losses.

At present, Jain is working with several other bank executives to work together to give up their year-end bonuses. According to sources, Jain's global market sector plans 900 job cuts, the total number of employees by 15%. Merck Finck & Co. Companies in Munich analyst Konrad Becker (Konrad Becker) said: "In the past, when Jain department is the most profitable. In our view, he is the CEO of Deutsche Bank the next candidate. "further deepen the financial crisis could force Deutsche Bank to obtain from the investor more money, so Becker recommends selling shares of Deutsche Bank.

Transaction risk

According to Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) banking analyst Van Steenis (Huw van Steenis) 12 dated 16 that, in spite of Goldman Sachs has the world's largest mergers and acquisitions advisory business, but Deutsche Bank's leverage ratio than Goldman Sachs Group more than twice, but also far higher than is located in London, Barclays Bank.

Third quarter of last year, due to intensified global economic recession, the risk increased, large-scale integrated-type financial institutions are facing the prospect of enormous pressure, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (Standard & Poor's Ratings Services) lower than the United States and the European Bank's credit rating Deutsche Bank ranked one.

Van Steenis said: "We recognize that Deutsche Bank has its own good financial team, and the bank's risk management should be significantly better than many other banks. But it is not the usual time, is now such a serious credit crunch, credit market liquidity serious disruption to the flow, small-scale high-cost credit requirements, although more, but for the Deutsche Bank, such as large financial groups and there is not much benefit. On the contrary, we believe that the cost of diluting the risk remains high. "

Van Steenis said in London, Deutsche Bank, he predicted will increase by at least 6.5 billion euros the amount of capital injection, but the bank is likely to cut shareholder dividend income to improve their own balance sheet situation. This projection has great credibility. Van Steenis forecast with JPMorgan Chase Bank analyst Kian Abouhossein previous forecast made by the same amount of money. Kian Abouhossein, said: "Under the current circumstances, all the assets in the event of the diminution in value of the risks, the risks and therefore almost impossible to avoid." He also said: "Deutsche Bank's situation is relatively good, but in response to the current market uncertainty , the bank's financing may also be very large scale. "

Kian Abouhossein that Deutsche Bank's stock price changes can not indicate to the problems. But in 2008, Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt trading market share prices have fallen more than 69%, which is what investors obviously not good news, investors sold the bank's retaliatory in turn, will inevitably result in Deutsche Bank's market value has shrunk sharply . So far, Deutsche Bank's market value was only 13.9 billion euros poor.

Capital requirements

Deutsche Bank CEO Ackermann (Josef Ackermann) in November 12, 2008 made it clear that Deutsche Bank does not require government financial aid. He claimed that Deutsche Bank can fully rely on the internal self-rescue measures, such as the sale of company stock, the issuance of new corporate bonds. According to an informed source said last week, until now, Deutsche Bank does not accept government assistance plan also nothing has changed.

Germany's second-largest bank - Germany's commercial banks (Commerzbank AG) chief executive Martin - Blaesing (Martin Blessing) said that the German commercial banks would study carefully the government package of rescue package in order to determine "whether the plan to the line constitutes a practical significance, and then be taken into account. " January 9, the company announced the second phase of the Government grants have all到账a total of 10 euros, which the company will account for 25 percent of the total market value.

Although Deutsche Bank declined to accept government assistance, but that does not mean that the bank's financial situation is not without any problems. The bank December 17 aimed at the adoption of a cash fund programs involve a total sum of 10 euros, which shows that the banks have also resulted in a serious financial crisis. In view of people's doubts, Deutsche Bank made a clear response: "to make this decision because the replacement cost of funds to increase rapidly." Sanford Bernstein analyst Dirk - Hoffman - Menachem Begin (Dirk Hoffmann-Becking) pointed out that the : Deutsche Bank is seeking all possible ways to prevent the cost of capital growth.

Favorable accounting standards

According to the statistics show Abouhossein: Deutsche Bank in 2008 by total assets of the whole year is obviously much less than many U.S. banks, but also lower than the two rival UBS of Switzerland and Credit Suisse. According to statements by the end of 2008 third quarter showed that benefit from the new accounting standards by bringing the assets of reduction, the bank the third quarter of 435 million euros profit. Quarterly Bulletin revealed that the key to profits accounting rules change, which makes the bank the third quarter of assets decreased by 845 million euros, for a total of 1.2 billion euros to mention, by Assets of assets, including leveraged buyout loans, housing mortgage-backed securities and bonds and commercial real estate. Since last year, Deutsche Bank cut the total assets of 8.5 billion euros. Deutsche Bank's investment banking sector for the third quarter pre-tax loss of 789 million euros for the third consecutive quarter showing a loss. And before the once considered a stable business in the retail banking sector, asset management and global transaction banking sector pre-tax profit from the same period last year 832 million euros to 449 million euros decline.

Consumer banking business

Ackerman, president of Deutsche Bank in December 29 last year to accept a television interview that he completely failed to properly estimate the extent of the damage the financial crisis, but his quick recovery in financial markets have high confidence, the situation is expected to good changes will soon occur. But it was not until Lehman Brothers came tumbling down, the financial experts view of the financial markets should be changed. He said: "Until then I was well aware that this so bad."

Ackerman has been on the financial crisis, declined to comment, but rather focus on how to expand the Bank's business. He bought shares of Deutsche Post 30% stake in the company. Deutsche Post AG owns Germany's largest consumer banking business through the acquisition Ackerman plans to improve its private clients and corporate customer base.

Credit rating has been falling

Because of the financial market situation is too grim, Deutsche Bank's credit ratings have suffered a corresponding reduction. December 19 last year, Standard & Poor's ratings will be Deutsche Bank lowered to AA-from A +. The well-known rating agency, said Deutsche Bank in 2008 fiscal year can not be optimistic about Q4 Quarterly Bulletin, and by the market impact of the larger environment, and its level of profitability in 2009 will also be more in 2007 the level has dropped significantly. In a Bloomberg News survey of 43 analysts, only less than one-third think that investors should buy shares of Deutsche Bank. Correspondingly, more than 40% of the analysts recommended the purchase of UBS and Credit Suisse shares
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